Control technology

Control technology

The control limit is 12 billion units (neurons, people ...), a maximum of 100 billion when using the AI - then schizophrenia, chaos and loss of control.

Econometrics, business and management: what we measure and what we manage?


Probably every math involved modeling various dynamic processes, in particular, application of the results to the solution of specific practical problems, had to experience the frustration that built them or that model is not precise enough, as if he would predict the flow of the process. In applications of statistical methods to the analysis of time series similar situations occur all the time. They have long been perceived by researchers as quite normal, self-evident phenomenon. Indeed, having obtained the experimental data and describing them with appropriate theoretical curve, we extend its laws beyond the period of observations. Forecast for shallow depth in the future, as a rule, is satisfactory and this is largely determined by the continuity of the theoretical curve and the process. The forecast for considerable depth in the majority of cases is unacceptable, since the theoretical curve deviates significantly from the experimental data.

 Trying to save the situation in the framework of the statistical methods, we return to the source material, casting suspicious points applied other interpolation formulas, develop new ones and get another theoretical curve in order to assess its predictive properties. And if again we are not getting the desired results, we conclude that the statistics are only a first approach to the identification of regularities of the process.

Usmanov Z. D., d-R f-m Sciences, Professor,

The Director of the Mathematical Institute of the former Academy of Sciences of the Tajik SSR


 Well said – "...that statistics is only a first approximation to the identification of regularities of the process?!" And it is said in the early days of perestroika, when began research in the field of Economics, when he raised the issue of the use of econometric methods in management. As for econometrics, then this is another work of the author – the "New Economics," which describes the essence and theory of the new approach and the analysis and measurement of business and management. But the essence of these words remains the same in all Universities teach econometric forecast, but don't know its main disadvantage!

 How to explore these patterns of processes? In world practice introduced quite a of studies and put into practice methods of measurements of business and management. But in econometrics research are reduced only to several methods of economic-mathematical modeling. It turned out that statistical methods are rarely used in the field of business, that none of these methods does not apply to management, including the analysis and evaluation of large social formations.

 Why? Examining many of the organizational system, it was found that managers do not use econometric methods, as the methods themselves and the result is unclear and incorrectly interpreted by researchers. Usually, exploring the curves of deviations of indicators used in this regression analysis, build models of linear and multiple regression, linear regression model with autocorrelation residues heteroscedasticity and use the generalized least squares method (omnk), etc. But in practice, constructing curves of variance (often using a simple program such as MS-Excel) on two or three points, begin to report to management on the forecast of future sales, etc.

Many economists understand that to build a curve is at least 7-8 points and its curvature will still be determined by the last three or four points, and it is wrong. Smart EA uses statistics seasonal factors and growth rates.

But in fact, the professional forecasters are always building three models of the situation:

 Model development current trends and processes in the future (the usual prospects of the expected and desired changes that you always want to rely on).
The model of development taking into account the influence of known and unknown (suspected, but not expected) external environment factors.
The model of development, taking account of the crisis inside and outside the OS (crisis, force majeure, political decisions, etc., that is not the desired effect, even fantastic scenarios, for example, crazy senior analyst...).

 Management reported three curves of development of the situation and what to do in every possible situation development. Of course models 2 and 3 no one wants to consider and does not believe it (until it happens). Taking into account the models head takes effect (the plan) on the establishment of reserve funds, contingency contracts, list of risks and other organizational-technical measures and financial decisions [1-5]. And only then, business processes, taking into account compiled and approved to action development plans are less risky and more manageable.

 Business processes are time-dependent (changes in markets, products, STP), what we talked about in our study, and of course time is a factor which must be considered when constructing econometric curve dependencies. Even poincaré argued that the time is determined by the languages describing the same processes. That is, trying to measure the process, we do not know what measure this process. And "time is money", as the hero Gaidai! And yet, how to use econometric methods. After All, V. Leontiev also the author of the econometrics and balances lives and works now after America and the whole world!

 Before considering basic econometrics, I would like to show that the battle for the fortress mathematical truths and analysis of the evidence of the certainty of mathematical foundations after David Hilbert, and Kurt gödel, leaves still some problems in mathematical statistics and econometrics: usually I bring them to students in the form of a formula: 1-1 = 0. If in econometrics under the figure - 1 refers to one loaf of bread, what do we see? There was one loaf of bread, took a loaf of bread, became zero loaves of bread (ate what?) But really, we have move the baton to another person – the buyer and the zero here has no seats, it is a programming and logistics. Takes place or the understanding that one loaf we took a different baton – joke, or what is left in stock of empty containers. But Tara and the place is not zero! Zero takes place only in the balance sheets as a reflection of the scale of objects. If mathematically from the object (baton) to subtract an object (baton), then we have the annihilation of the loaf? The paradox in econometrics! Zero and as the number of accounts also makes sense only in the number, with zeros on the right. We begin the account in the econometrics unit, and where is zero, where its place and the beginning of the account? This reflection problem the number number. The theory of the quality of the sets in the book, the author (Philosophy of thinking. 1994), reflected these problems and have proposed other methods of assessment and account objects. The problem of definition: what is zero – still has a place in mathematics and philosophy. Not to mention such concepts as infinity and time! In mathematical logic, there are also paradoxes: if the conclusion that I have one loaf, it should be – I can eat one loaf; and the conclusion, if I have one loaf, it should be - I can pay for dinner grandma: merging to conclusion if I have one loaf, I can eat it and give it to the grandmother: requires explanation or further definition. The problem is logistics and programming! Here it is necessary instead of a Boolean "And" to put a logical action "OR". But the math in this conclusion is not folded, and multiply. But who will determine this position in the analysis of business processes, if mathematically everything is done correctly? For example, I usually give the simplest tasks to students on integers and fractions, and the smartest problem in econometrics is to specify one variable - the other ten is difficult, and one almost cannot solve them. In English there is a merger or an understanding "and/or". Therefore, in the practice of business managers neglect to econometrics: they simply lack the simplest logic or they follow their intuitive experience.